Bitcoin price hints at ‘megaphone’ bottom pattern, and a breakout toward $40K
Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rebound from below $30,000 has increased its prospects of extending its retracement move higher, at least according to one classic technical pattern.
Dubbed as Broadening Formation, the megaphone-shaped pattern appears when the price moves inside two diverging trendlines. Investopedia states that a broadening formation represents disagreement over the next potential bias among investors. As a result, the price forms higher interim peaks and lower interim lows.
Bitcoin appears to be trading inside a similar structure, as shown in the chart below. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency lacks volatility, one of the key features of the broadening formation pattern.
Should the pattern play out, the Bitcoin price will undergo a bullish breakout above the structure’s upper trendline.
In doing so, it would expect to rise by as much as the maximum height between the broadening formation’s upper and lower trendline. The upside setup appears because traders interpret broadening formation as a trend reversal pattern.
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But until then, the pattern offers swing trading opportunities to daytraders, i.e., a bounce from the lower trendline tends to present Long opportunities toward the upper trendline, and a pullback from the upper trendline could have traders open short positions toward the lower one.
Again, the Bitcoin price volatility is lower enough to invalidate such intra-range setups.
The most interim resistance level is near the dashed trendline in the Bitcoin chart below.
A close above the dashed trendline expects to have Bitcoin test $35,00 as its next resistance target. On an extended move higher, the potential to hit $40,000 is higher based on the cryptocurrency’s recent price patterns.
Conversely, a pullback from the dashed trendline tends to validate a Falling Channel pattern. On the other hand, Bitcoin could retrace its steps lower towards the so-called Broadening Wedge’s support trendline (next downside target near $28,500).
Bitcoin price fundamentals
The conflicting Bitcoin setups emerge as bulls continue to defend $30,000 as support while bears enjoy control over the $34,000-$35,000 area. Unfortunately, that has landed BTC price inside a constrained trading range, giving no interim clues about where it wants to head next.
Fundamentals have played a key role in trapping Bitcoin prices. To the upside, inflationary pressures from the traditional finance sector have provided tailwinds to Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative. Meanwhile, the downside is an increasingly global regulatory discontent toward the cryptocurrency sector.
In the last two months, the market has witnessed China banning cryptocurrency trading, India raiding regional crypto exchange WazirX, and the U.K. banning Binance’s subsidiary from operating regulated businesses. In addition, Japan and Hong Kong also issued warnings and restrictions against Binance.
Earlier this week, the U.S. state authorities closed crypto company BlockFi’s accounts, alleging that the startup sold unregistered securities. The sector also received criticism for increasing carbon footprints via mining, which requires heavy computational power to run blockchains.
“As long as global regulation of cryptocurrencies is not eased, or a resolution is met, I believe it is difficult to gain public trust, and for Bitcoin to scale the heights it reached in early 2021,” Adam Todd, Founder, and CEO of Digitex, told Cointelegraph.
JG Collins, head of the Stuyvesant Square Consultancy, also wrote in his Seeking Alpha op-ed that “national economics regulators, state environmental regulators, and municipalities troubled by “mining” raising local electrical rates will sweep cryptos away like a tsunami.”
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.